Sony Open betting guide: 6 picks our gambling expert loves this week

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sport betting. You can follow on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the Sony Open, which gets underway Thursday in Oahu. Along with Kannon’s recommended plays, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app that features both Free-To-Play and Daily Fantasy golf contests where you can win cash and prizes with each round and tournament.

Not a bad way to kick off the 2025 golf season with a winner on Hideki Matsuyama (22-1) and his triumph at the Sentry in gorgeous Kapalua, Maui. It’s funny — we finished the FedEx Fall with three straight runner-up finishes and then closed out 2024 with a winner on Scottie Scheffler at the Hero World Challenge back in December. Will a third outright winner in a row emerge for us this week at the Sony Open? We’ll see. Fingers crossed.

We puddle-jump this week from Maui over to the island of Oahu for the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu. The Plantation Course at Kapalua and Waialae are nearly polar opposites in comparison, but we do see some crossover success between the two tournaments. In fact, Matsuyama won the Sony in 2022. The Sony Open will be our first full-field event of the new season with 144 players scheduled to tee it up on Thursday.

Waialae is a Seth Raynor design, constructed in 1927. It has been a regular host on the PGA Tour since 1965. It is a par 70, measuring just over 7,000 yards. While last week’s venue was gargantuan and undulated, this week we find flat, narrow, tree-lined fairways, bordered by thick rough, and small greens. About the only thing the two courses have in common is that they are coastal locations, susceptible to wind, and they are both wall-to-wall Bermudagrass. After the wind blew last week on Thursday, it was nearly dead calm the rest of the way. Here in Honolulu, the forecast calls for some rain early in the week and then giving way to wind in the 10-20 MPH neighborhood.

A high measure of predictability is another connection between Waialae Country Club and the Plantation Course. We tend to see players continue to play well year after year at each venue. We also have strong correlated courses with Waialae as we did last week in Maui. Narrow, shorter, coastal designs. Courses that dogleg in both directions. Colonial Country Club (Charles Schwab Challenge), Sea Island (RSM Classic), Harbour Town (RBC Heritage), TPC Southwind (FedEx St. Jude), Port Royal (Bermuda Championship), and El Camaleon, where they used to play the World Wide Technologies at Mayakoba, are all excellent indicators of crossover success. 

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As far as skill sets, I looked at Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdies or Better Gained, and Scrambling — just like last week — but with small greens and narrow fairways, I also considered Driving Accuracy and Greens in Regulation Gained. Of course, we have 12 par 4s this week, so I looked at that, and also Hole Proximity from 125-175 yards.

Let’s see if we can keep the winning Aloha going here on the islands this week. In addition to an outright win, I also played each selection for a top-20 finish. It is also worth noting that all six of my selections played the Sentry last week. Eight of the last 11 Sony Open winners played the week prior in Kapalua.

Maverick McNealy (29-1)

McNealy finished top 10 last week in Maui and has been running hot for a few months now. He was 12th at the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind in August and then added two more top-20 finishes and a sixth-place finish in Los Cabos over the fall before capturing his first-ever PGA Tour victory in St. Simons Island, Georgia, at Sea Island in the RSM Classic. We know McNealy has one of the best short games in the world but over the last 24 rounds, he also ranks high in Greens in Regulation Gained at 16th in this field and 7th on the Par 4s measuring 450-500 yards. He’s finished as high as fourth at the RBC Heritage, has only missed one cut in six tries at Colonial, and has finished 10-11-12 in consecutive seasons at El Camaleon at Mayakoba. He was 7th here in Honolulu in 2023.

Taylor Pendrith (35-1)

Like McNeally, Pendrith too earned his first-ever Tour win in 2024, winning the CJ Cup Byron Nelson back in May. He took 13th last week at Kapalua and after opening with a round of 71, he closed by shooting 65-67-67. Pendrith has finished as high as 15th at the RSM Classic, has two top-10 finishes at Port Royal Golf Club, and was 10th here at Waialae last season. Over the last 24 rounds, Pendrith ranks inside the top 10 in this field for SG: Approach and GIR Gained. He’s third in this field for Birdies or Better Gained and on the 450-500 yard par 4s.

Harry Hall (50-1)

The UNLV Rebel golfer came up high on my list last week in Maui and sure enough, he played very well, ending up with a top-10 finish. But I actually believe he makes more sense this week at this golf course. We’ve seen him challenge for a win at Colonial Country Club, finishing third in 2023. He won the ISCO Championship, his first Tour victory, back in July and then closed out this past fall season with finishes of 9-13-14. He’s tremendous in this field as far as birdies, scrambling, on the par 4s measuring 400-450 yards and in Hole Proximity from 125-150 yards.

Tom Hoge (60-1)

Hoge earned his first Tour win a few years ago on another coastal course with small greens, that being Pebble Beach. He too played beautifully last week at the Sentry, ultimately finishing eighth. He has two top-20 finishes at Colonial in Fort Worth, Texas, where he attended TCU. He has two top-10 finishes at the RSM Classic, a third at Mayakoba, and a third place finish here at the Sony too, back in 2018.

Cam Davis (63-1)

Like Hall, Davis was another player I was keen on last week and ultimately stayed away. He got out to an awful start, shooting 73 in the opening round last week but followed that up with consecutive rounds of 64 and wound up finishing 13th for the tournament. He’s never missed a cut here in three tries and his worst finish was 32nd. Davis has finished sixth and 13th at TPC Southwind, seventh and third at Harbour Town, and seventh at Colonial CC. Over the last 24 rounds, Davis is ninth in this field for Birdies or Better Gained and is No. 1 on the 450-500 yard par 4s.

Thomas Detry (80-1)

Not one of our selections this week finished worse than 13th last week and Detry is no exception, taking fifth place last week at the Sentry. He had an excellent season last year that included four top-10 finishes and I believe he is very close to getting his first win on Tour. He’s had solid performances at Colonial, Sea Island, at El Camaleon, and was runner-up at the Bermuda Championship in 2022. Over the last 36 rounds, Detry ranks fourth in this field for SG: Putting (Bermudagrass).

Who Chirp Golf players are picking this week

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